lör 09 nov 2024, 08:17#861091
Dyrt med slumpkraft...
“When it comes to weather risk, wind power is and remains the central risk factor for the power systems in the winter months. That is because the range of possible wind power outcomes is quite wide,” said Francisco Gaspar Machado, senior power analyst at LSEG, adding that hourly prices could hit EUR 1,000/MWh or higher this winter.
In the day-ahead auction for Wednesday, German power for the hour from 17:00-18:00 CET turned out at EUR 820.11/MWh, making it the fourth-highest hourly price in the day-ahead auction this year. The highest three hours were recorded on the day the Epex Spot exchange decoupled from the other exchanges.
The country yesterday burned 700 MW of oil-fired output, one of the most expensive fuels, as wind power generation hit a 10-year low.
Low renewables risk
Wind output in Germany fell below 1 GW yesterday, compared with the seasonal norm of around 19 GW, Montel Analytics data showed.
“I expect this to happen more often this winter,” said a German power trader. “And this is just the beginning, I guess prices can go much higher the further winter progresses. This goes especially for days with low wind and solar.”
Central Europe should see “well below normal” wind generation in the weeks to come, said William Henneberg, meteorologist at Weather Commodity Group, as well as temperatures 1C warmer than usual.
In periods of low wind output, more expensive gas and coal plants enter the market to meet demand.
Sigurd Lie, senior analyst at Norwegian consultancy StormGeo, also pointed to Germany’s phasing out of coal and nuclear, which meant the baseload supply of lignite, coal and gas had “narrowed”, he said.
German hard coal capacity stood at 16.8 GW at the start of October, EEX data showed, and should drop to 10.3 GW by the end of this year. Germany aims to cut its hard coal capacity to 8 GW by the end of 2030.
Lignite output restrictions
Leag, one of Germany’s top producers of lignite-fired power, said last week it expected output reductions due to technical issues. The Jaenschwalde (2 GW), Boxberg (2.5 GW), and Schwarze Pumpe (1.5 GW) power plants would not be available at full capacity until the end of March, it added.
Germany should have “enough power, but it will be more expensive” over winter, said a German portfolio manager.
Machado expected price spikes in the mornings and afternoons throughout winter and for these to impact the monthly and front-quarter prices more than the market had currently priced in.
The front-month contract last traded at EUR 87.30/MWh on the EEX, with the front quarter at EUR 93.75/MWh.
Machado forecast further rises: “Our model is currently pricing December at EUR 99.10/MWh and Q1 at EUR 99.70/MWh in the average of weather scenarios.”
Kort information om skogsforum.se